all the experts seem to be certain that there is only the possibility of penalties for Italy and France. Of course, I agree that is would be some kind of lottery
I didn´t mean that penalties are a lottery. Well, they kind of are, but that´s not my point. I meant a literal lottery.
Don´t want to spend the whole evening looking for answers but found this on Wikipedia, and yes we all know it´s not 100% reliable.
Qualification
* The Netherlands have qualified for the quarter finals as Group C winners.
* Romania will advance if
o they beat the Netherlands,
o or they draw with the Netherlands, while Italy and France draw,
o or they lose to the Netherlands by a margin of 3 goals or less, but not 0"“3, while Italy and France play a 0"“0 draw.
* Italy will advance if
o they beat France, while Romania fail to beat the Netherlands,
o or they play a 1"“1 or higher draw with France, while Romania lose to the Netherlands,
o or they play a 0"“0 draw with France, while Romania lose to the Netherlands by a 0"“3 scoreline or by more than three goals. (If Romania lose 3-0 and Italy draw 0-0, Italy qualify on the basis of UEFA coefficients)
* France will advance if
o they beat Italy, while Romania fail to beat the Netherlands