Fear of Scoxit?

[Skanky Vamp]

From CNN:

The currency slumped by 0.4% against the dollar on Monday to $1.24 on fears that Britain could soon face a new crisis: A referendum on Scottish independence.

The Times reported Monday that the government of Prime Minister Theresa May is preparing for the possibility that a second independence vote could be called for next month when Britain is expected to formally trigger its departure from the European Union.

Scotland held an independence referendum in 2014, with 55% of Scots voting to remain a part of the U.K.

But Sturgeon argues that Britain's planned departure from the EU -- which a majority of Scots voted against -- has significantly altered the terms of the national relationship. She has pledged to push for a second vote on Scottish independence if Britain leaves Europe's single trading market -- now a near certainty.

The chatter about a second referendum is already unnerving investors. The currency is now trading 17% below its levels on the day of the Brexit referendum.

Leaving the EU's free trading area is likely to bring bureaucratic pain to businesses trading across the EU. Banks and other financial institutions said they will have to move jobs abroad in order to safeguard their operations across the union.

The cheap pound is also hurting British shoppers as the price of imported goods rise. Retail sales dropped for a third consecutive month in January and economists expect inflation to creep above 2% in March.
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Do you think there WILL be a Scotland exit? What's the chance they leave the UK and join the EU? (It's really hard for me, a foreigner, to wrap my head about Scotland not being part of the UK. That just seems queer to me.)

If you are in the UK do you fear Scotland leaving? or is it not that much of a concern?

 

[Bluebird]

The irony of the Brexit situation is that Scotland was promised by the UK government that its only chance to stay in the EU was to stay a part of the UK. They consistently used the fear of losing EU membership and losing pensions as a way to swing the vote to no to independence. It was scaremongering at its very worst and it worked. Now Scotland is back in a position of massive political unrest that it had no say in, as Scotland overwhelmingly voted to stay part of the EU.

Now the no voters are quite disillusioned. I despise the UK as a concept, always have. England and Wales and NI are all wonderful countries but together, no. It is a failed concept. You can see the failure if you visit the worst parts of Scotland. Some areas have a lower life expectancy than some third world countries, from generations of poverty.

 

[DeadlyDuo]

I think Sturgeon is dangerous for Scotland. She only cares about what SHE thinks should happen rather than the bigger picture.

The UK is leaving the EU and the EU don't like it. They're going to try and make things as difficult as possible in order to make an example of us in the hope that it would prevent other countries from leaving the EU. Sturgeon seems to think that Scotland will be welcomed with open arms by the EU if they choose to leave the UK. I don't think that is going to happen. More than likely, the EU will hammer Scotland as "punishment" for the UK leaving, to the point where the Scottish people will want to leave the EU and be part of the UK again. The UK will allow Scotland to rejoin but it will be on the UK's terms.

Basically, Scotland voting to go independent will leave them in a weaker bargaining position and will end with them being worse off. That's my opinion.

 

[Bluebird]

I think Sturgeon is dangerous for Scotland. She only cares about what SHE thinks should happen rather than the bigger picture.

That's because she's thinking in terms of Scottish interests, you know, being the leader of the Scottish Independence movement. Rather than what's best for the UK. Surely you see the hypocrisy in using the 'we can only guarantee EU membership if you stay in the UK' argument as a selling point to no voters? Regardless of how you voted on Brexit, that is blatant lies. The UK can't guarantee any promises it makes to Scotland, so why should Scotland want to beg to be a part of the UK again? You don't hug someone who spits in your face.

 

[thetopher]

The Scottish independence vote was in many ways worse than the British EU vote and showed the true level of hostility towards English people by some Scottish 'out' supporters; screaming 'redcoat' and other abuse over and over in someone's face is actually kinda shocking and obnoxious, that is happened a lot to people who urged Scotland to stay IN the UK.
After all the the bitter arguing had stopped I was strongly in favor of Scotland leaving the UK. In fact according to many polls the majority of British are strongly in favor of Scotland leaving.

But economically it would be incredibly tough on them; they'd lose businesses (particularly from the banking sector) as they headed south, lose the new shipping contracts and also the pound as their currency.

 

[DeadlyDuo]

That's because she's thinking in terms of Scottish interests, you know, being the leader of the Scottish Independence movement. Rather than what's best for the UK. Surely you see the hypocrisy in using the 'we can only guarantee EU membership if you stay in the UK' argument as a selling point to no voters? Regardless of how you voted on Brexit, that is blatant lies. The UK can't guarantee any promises it makes to Scotland, so why should Scotland want to beg to be a part of the UK again? You don't hug someone who spits in your face.

The thing is though the Scottish referendum came before the Brexit referendum so the "we can only guarantee EU membership if you stay in the UK" was true at the time. Here's the real question though, will Scotland be given EU membership if it decides to leave or is it just cutting off its nose to spite its face? That was the question last time: Would Scotland be given EU membership if it went independent? It doesn't matter if it went independent now or if it went independent back then, it is still faced with the same question.

The Scottish independence vote was in many ways worse than the British EU vote and showed the true level of hostility towards English people by some Scottish 'out' supporters; screaming 'redcoat' and other abuse over and over in someone's face is actually kinda shocking and obnoxious, that is happened a lot to people who urged Scotland to stay IN the UK.
After all the the bitter arguing had stopped I was strongly in favor of Scotland leaving the UK. In fact according to many polls the majority of British are strongly in favor of Scotland leaving.

But economically it would be incredibly tough on them; they'd lose businesses (particularly from the banking sector) as they headed south, lose the new shipping contracts and also the pound as their currency.

Scotland would lose lots of its benefits if it decides to go independent and it will struggle. If they want to go independent then it should be a hard Scoxit, we shall see how well that goes for them.

 

[Athena]

I don't personally want Scotland to leave the UK, however if they do choose to have another referendum (as is their choice to do so and far be it from me to say otherwise) and they do ultimately choose to leave, then they should leave fully and completely and not state something along the lines of "we want to be independent but we want to retain certain things we're used to, like the pound sterling as our currency or the NHS".

If you want to be an independent nation, be a true independent nation.

The problem is, I can't see many Scots being down for a proper "hard Scoxit" just because there'd be so much uncertainty going it completely alone and what that would actually mean for an independent Scotland (whether they be accepted into the EU or not). However I thought that about Brexit, and 52% of the country got that decision spectacularly wrong for us. 🙄

 

[DeadlyDuo]

I don't personally want Scotland to leave the UK, however if they do choose to have another referendum (as is their choice to do so and far be it from me to say otherwise) and they do ultimately choose to leave, then they should leave fully and completely and not state something along the lines of "we want to be independent but we want to retain certain things we're used to, like the pound sterling as our currency or the NHS".

If you want to be an independent nation, be a true independent nation.

The problem is, I can't see many Scots being down for a proper "hard Scoxit" just because there'd be so much uncertainty going it completely alone and what that would actually mean for an independent Scotland (whether they be accepted into the EU or not). However I thought that about Brexit, and 52% of the country got that decision spectacularly wrong for us. 🙄

I disagree. I think a lot of what the Remain camp was peddling was fearmongering in regards to Brexit. That's not to say that the Leave camp weren't peddling lies also, but they weren't citing doom and gloom like the Remain camp was. I trust Theresa May will get us the best deal she can for Brexit because she is actually a good prime minister.

I agree with what you say about Scotland. It makes me wonder how Scotland leaving would affect the NHS for England and Wales, surely it would free up more funds for the NHS because they would no longer have to include Scotland when handing out the funding?

 

[GwenRaiden]

If they want to go independent then it should be a hard Scoxit, we shall see how well that goes for them.

Nice.

I did not realise there were so many experts on economy on the board. Who actually seem to know FOR SURE what will happen, and have all of the facts! Impressive.

 

[DeadlyDuo]

Nice.

I did not realise there were so many experts on economy on the board. Who actually seem to know FOR SURE what will happen, and have all of the facts! Impressive.

At which point am I wrong though? 😛

In all honesty, nobody knows how Scottish independence is going to turn out at this point. However, if you look at the different variables and what could go wrong, it doesn't look good for Scotland.

 

[GwenRaiden]

It's the attitude. We shall see how well that goes for "them". Jesus. Christ. This is why I don't talk Scottish politics with middle Englanders.

 

[nightshade]

I don't follow politics much, but I think that Scotland would be better waiting for a while before holding a new referendum, so that they have more information about what the UK will gain from leaving the EU. Making it a more informative vote than well maybe the UK will get this or that, and maybe if we leave we can get this or if we stay we can get that. Of course no one will know for certain until it's all been finalised but I think having more information than what currently is available can't be a bad thing.

Also Scotland already prints it's own bank notes, the amount of times I've been asked if I will accept them, umm yeah it's real currency why wouldn't I. Seems weird to me that people still don't accept them in England

 

[DeadlyDuo]

It's the attitude. We shall see how well that goes for "them". Jesus. Christ. This is why I don't talk Scottish politics with middle Englanders.

"Them" as in Scotlanders who vote independence, not as in "other". It's easier to refer to a collective as "them" or "they" rather than a long winded sentence to explain the same point eg if people voted for Trump, then they can't complain about him as president. Likewise, if people vote for Scottish independence then they can't complain if it doesn't go their way.

Also I'm not in middle England. 😛

I don't follow politics much, but I think that Scotland would be better waiting for a while before holding a new referendum, so that they have more information about what the UK will gain from leaving the EU. Making it a more informative vote than well maybe the UK will get this or that, and maybe if we leave we can get this or if we stay we can get that. Of course no one will know for certain until it's all been finalised but I think having more information than what currently is available can't be a bad thing.

Agreed.

 

[November]

I've been thinking and that lead me down the rabbit hole again. Im not politically minded.

I can really see why scotland wants out and the benefits for the country they want in the long run, but it would be a tough slog to get there, which, lets face it, most humans cannot be bothered with. I'd guess many will chose whatever makes life easiest for them personally in the now, rather than what could be a viable future for the country in the long run. Its so hard to make choices based on the government information, as they have proven over and over they do not stick to their word (in any country). But obviously whats been going on, is not working.

Cant help but notice the English did it all wrong. Sending the worst of the worst out to "conquer" nations all those years ago. How different would life be if they sent the hippies and povos with gifts of weed, instead of guns and disease and alcohol? Some hold deep hate for what the English did.

It would be almost as atrocious in this time to take health care off the people who were likely put in the health care system because of the way of life the English enforced.

 

[Bluebird]

It is absolutely heartbreaking that the people who have the strongest opinions against independence have never lived in Scotland, and have no idea how bad it can and has got for the most effected. It's super depressing that the loudest are the most ignorant of reality, but then that's the way of the world.

I take it this means the rest of the UK fears Scotland leaving? Since that was the question, not how badly will it fail.

 

[Priceless]

I was really surprised that Scotland voted to stay in the UK, I honestly expected the nationalists to win and I think it showed that Scottish simply lacked confidence in themselves. The Brexit vote seems to have galvanised Scotland and made people re-think. The situation has changed since the last referendum so I think it's only fair to have another, and support whatever decision the Scottish made.

 

[RomanticSoul]

Well I'm someone who thinks the EU needs to fall because it's the only chance left for Europe to survive. However speaking in terms of Scotland, leaving the UK to stay in the EU might actually be beneficial. The banking sector wouldn't need to move to main land Europe (like Frankfurt or Paris) and could just move up to Scotland. That's a possibility that's been mentioned since Brexit. Same with other economic sectors. And if Scotland has been as abandoned by the UK as @Bluebird says then it can't get much worse really.

Either way I think that if a country wants to be independent they should be. I wish we could vote on something like that but democracy is an illusion in my country. What the people want doesn't interest our politicians.

 

[thetopher]

Scotland would lose lots of its benefits if it decides to go independent and it will struggle.

Especially since oil prices have tanked and will now never fully recover thanks to plentiful shale-oil and price wars with OPEC. That was a massive part of the SNP's platform 'we will all be rich because of oil prices'.
The fact is there really isn't a sound economic plan for wanting to leave the UK now, but that won't stop National jingoism from eventually triumphing. If Scotland wants to be out for the simple reason of 'freedom' then that's fine- I understand that- but the SNP has been peddling lies for a while now; some sort of 'golden dawn' for an independent Scotland.

Cant help but notice the English did it all wrong. Sending the worst of the worst out to "conquer" nations all those years ago. How different would life be if they sent the hippies and povos with gifts of weed, instead of guns and disease and alcohol?

The irony is that The British Empire happened mostly by accident; it was a result of exploration and trade- and fierce competition with 'true' empire builders such as Spain, France and Germany
And if you want to look at countries that really, viciously clung on to their colonies instead of giving them independence (French Algeria for example) then you'll see some true horror stories.

Some hold deep hate for what the English did.

Like the Commonwealth?

 

[The Bronze]

OK so for those on the outside looking in and scratching their heads about this situation I'll try to cover some of the basics about the UK. The first thing to note is that although we don't have a comedy figure like Donald Trump as the face of our democracy, it's still an absolute mess.

We have an unelected head of state, an unelected upper house and an unrepresentative lower house. The current government not only has a majority of seats in the house despite only having 37% of the votes, they're also suspected of committing electoral fraud. On top of that we also have the farcical situation of a UK parliament, Scottish parliament, Welsh parliament, Northern Irish parliament but no English one.

Taking a closer look at Scotland we can see that in 2010 and again in 2015 they didn't vote for the upwards redistribution of wealth through savage Tory austerity. Then in 2016 they didn't vote to leave the EU without a plan of what to do afterwards. What happened in all those situations? They got shafted anyway. If I could vote for my own independence from Tory rule then I would.

I trust Theresa May will get us the best deal she can for Brexit because she is actually a good prime minister.

You don't mean Theresa "Brexit means Brexit" May do you? Someone who is utterly incapable of answering a question with a straight answer. The woman who has introduced the most invasive surveillance law in the western world? A prime minister over seeing crisis' in the NHS, schools, prisons, trains, underground network, housing, social care etc.

Anyway if Scotland has another referendum you can expect lots of lies, little planning for what will happen afterwards and a huge mess much like Brexit. They'll be years of fighting over who owns what, who owes who money, what laws apply to who. You name it, there'll be a problem with it. Once it all gets cleared up in 10-20 years time though Scotland might finally have a chance to govern themselves without Conservatives, which is a dream worth fighting for. Us in England will of course continue to be shafted, starting with the poorest.

If I could get a job, a house and learn the language I'd consider moving to an independent Scotland.

 

[Bluebird]

The fact that anyone believes an entire independence movement could come about simply because 'they hate the English' or want 'freedom' like some Braveheart-watching idiot, is incredibly offensive and ignorant to the reality of living in Scotland. As if people have no real basis to want independence. It's astonishing.