Serenity; The Box Office

How will Serenity do? What will the domestic gross be?

  • Less than 80 million

    Votes: 4 30.8%

  • About 80 million

    Votes: 6 46.2%

  • More than 80, and the sky's the limit.

    Votes: 3 23.1%
  • Total voters
    13
nerd4hire

nerd4hire

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So in 2 weeks, more or less we'll get to see what all the fuss has been about this past year.

They say it will have to make at least 80 million (I'm guessing domestic) to be qualified as a success, and make the possibility of a Part II likely.

So whataya think? Will they do it?
 
Im hoping they do it but im kind of weary on it. Just the promo for it, if you havent seen the show, you wouldnt know what the movie is about and it just focuses on one charecter instead of introducing anything so im worried about how its being promoted. But im hoping that it will make 80 or more so Fox can look what they lost out on and for Joss since he worked his butt off on this.
 
Hm, I don't know.. I'd love to say I think it'll be a huge success but I don't know anyone who wants to see it, but maybe that's just I happen to live in Sweden. I really do think it'll be a great movie though and it deserves it and all.. just.. I don't know.. hm.
 
i'm hoping it'll make at least 80 million. for those of us who've seen firefly, we can drag our non-whedon obsessed friends to see serenity, and hopefully we can manage to help it make the 80 mark and they'll order up a sequel!!
personaly i can wait to see it!! less than two weeks!! woo hoo!!
 
So you're talkin just domestic theater grosses? Hard to say. Hope it breaks at least 80. So much apparently depends on overseas markets and DVD sales now...

Just saw a TV spot, during that "Supernatural" show. Not sure if it's the one Primal Slayer saw. It looked good! Couldn't quite tell what the hell was going on. No Western vibe whatsoever. Just seemed like it would be a smartly written fun action flick. That's an accomplishment for a 15 second spot or however long it was.

I'm thinking reviews and word-of-mouth will help it.
 
The Sky is definitely not the limit... and Space mightn't even be the final frontier either 😉 ... this ship, Serenity, can fly so mighty well; it will steer clear of the iceberg that got Titanic stuck on a mere 600 million. 😀
 
Some stuff to consider:

What's opening against? Eg. I think there's that Jessica Alba thing - Into the Blue, and something connected to Neil Gaiman - Mirror Mask. Will these or others cut into the Serenity demographic?

What kind of promotion will it get from Universal? Not too impressed so far. The promotion for Into the Blue is much better. The Universal premiere is Sept 22. Will Entertaintment Tonight, and their ilk even care.

Fan reception. What will happen on opening night. Will fans arrive in Browncoat regalia singing Hero of Canton. It could attract attention, but who really wants to be added to Conan O Brian's list of movies he can reference with his squeaky nerd voice.

Will the internet buzz and DVD sales that have been in the top 50 since the December 2003 release have any affect?

What will the word of mouth be like.

The Critics don't matter. Ebert, for instance, has panned almost every popular Genre movie that's come along including the first 2 entries in the Lord of the Rings trilogy. Didn't hurt them.
 
I think Serenity is going to do really well in the box office. I've been loving the promos (though they could be better) I'm really excited to go see it the day it comes out!
 
I can't judge for the states, but the only thing is that here in the Netherlands, where it opens October 6th, the trailers haven't begun appearing on television and I haven't spotted them in cinemas either.

But... I'll try my best at word of mouth 😉
 
nerd4hire said:
What will the word of mouth be like.

The Critics don't matter. Ebert, for instance, has panned almost every popular Genre movie that's come along including the first 2 entries in the Lord of the Rings trilogy. Didn't hurt them.
Click to expand...


I'm trying to get a handle on past sleeper movie cult phenomena. The new generation of (US) PG-13 horror flicks have done really well. From what I've read, it's primarily driven by teens, teen girls especially. The Ring movies, Grudge, this new Exorcism of Emily Rose"”all sort of surprising the industry and media pundits at how relatively huge they turn out to be.

I suspect that reviews matter most for the arthouse flicks and the potential Oscar contenders. The folks who read the alternative weeklys and Entertainment Weekly, Variety, etc. pay attention to the critical buzz much more than your average grade schooler, high schooler...

The Others, The Sixth Sense were twisty, surprising stories that pulled the rug on folks, led to slow-building word-of-mouth...

Serenity is a different animal altogether I think. I don't see its promotion appealing to teen girls all that much like a PG-13 horror flick. Teen boys, maybe"”with all the action in the TV spot(s). It seems like a hard sell. It'll be smart and odd enough to be something the arthouse crowd could seemingly get into, yet so many would be repelled by the genre right off the bat.

It's weird, it's got a built-in little Star Wars cult before anything even hits the big screen. Sort of like a potential mainstream nerd-backlash factor...

And the most influential US critic, Ebert, is an odd duck. He didn't like the first two LOTR movies cause he felt Jackson changed the tone, original Hobbit emphasis of the books too much.

Ebert, I think, likes most 007 films, liked virtually all the Marvel movies (excepting Spidey 1), loved Sky Captain...even the mindless Tomb Raider flicks! But, he needs something to glom onto, like a retro-nostalgia, comic book adventure factor...or Angelina Jolie, heh.

What's gonna happen with Serenity!?!
 
Yeah, I forgot to factor in the Star Wars thing. Is there are a box office hole looking to be filled there?
 
Good question. No idea.

It seems like a similar model might be the LOTR movies themselves. An existing, built-in nerd-cult before the films come out. Of course, that was an exponentially larger cult. I guess any sort of genre adaptation, beloved book adaptation, has huge expectations, potential problems in that regard.

I can remember there being discussions, extreme critical, elitist dismay at LOTR being voted best work of 20th Century fiction in a British popular poll. The old cultural clash between the sort of pre-modern fantasy loving Joe Q. Public and Modernist Academia who thought it was rubbish.

There's less snobbery where films are concerned, but...I think big numbers for Serenity will depend on whether or not enough teens and twentysomethings will give a damn.
 
I've actually seen it 🙂 It's a good movie however there's just not enough advertising for it. The main trailer they're showing doesn't showcase it enough to bring people into the theater and there's already a slump going on in the states. It doesn't per se have stiff competition for it's opening weekend and it's likely it might be number 1 that weekend but hell so was House of Wax, Diary of a Mad Black woman, and The Pacifier. Winning your opening weekend isn't that impressive anymore. Holding onto it for a few weeks is but I'm not sure Serenity has that staying power. They've ran a good internet campaign and they've really impressed people with their dozens of preview viewings but with a slump already so bad that Hollywood (at one point) was counting on The Island (heh) to save it then I really can't see Serenity scoring well. My God I hope it does because I want Joss to be get everything he produces greenlit but iono it's still very up in the air. I encourage everyone in the states to go see it opening weekend and bring (atleast) 5 friends. It is the fans that are going to make this movie a hit. I hate seeing things opening weekend but me and 38 people are going together and plan on giving it a standing ovation at the end.
 
Yeah, the lack of ads does seem odd. I've seen just one little spot so far. I guess it'll kick into higher gear by next week, hopefully(?).

I think Hollywood is killing its own theater biz to a degree, with DVDs two or three months after a release. And they're like a big, lumbering Brontosaurus: productions take so long to get on screen, and they apparently have to get battered at the box office a few times before they realize that viewer's tastes are changing.
 
I'm seriously disappointed with promotion on this one. I actually only bought the Firefly dvds so that I wouldn't be lost on Serenity (now I'm in love with the show, but that's a different story) The trailer I saw though, jump-started me. It excited me. It made me go 'oooh, Nathan Fillion as something other than Caleb, interesting' the action looked good, I wasn't entirely sure what it was about, but I was intrigued. Even my boyfriend who has barely even watched Buffy, much less is the whedon-groupie I am was excited. But then, nothing. I haven't even seen a tv spot. Or a poster. Nothing but that one trailer. Silly really. Plus, leaving out the whole western/sci-fi vibe of the promotion is a huge mistake. That could be a big draw. I know that a lot of draw for the Kill Bills (besides big-name power from Taratino and Uma Thurman) was the fusion of Westerns and kung fu movies. People love westerns, I don't care what studios think. We like bad guys with a heart of gold, and we like cattle and we like 'This is my land and you're not going to take it' and we like anti-heros, we like posses, we like people just trying to make it in a lawless world. It appeals. And leaving that edge out of Serenity promotions is a slip-up that could cost. I do see word of mouth spreading on Serenity though. I know at least eight girls on campus who are going to see it opening night (including yours truly). We're caravaning! At least two of us are dragging non-whedonites. And that sort of base (18-24 males and females) are big on word of mouth. They tell their friends, who tell their friends etc etc. Could be good for Whedon & Co.
 
P
ProphecyGirl
I really like this new banner :)
OK, I saw my second Serenity ad! It was a little surreal cause it was in spanish, heh. Univision or something...

I assume Joss has very little if anything to do with the conventional promotion strategy, as pathetic as it is.
 
Anchovy said:
That could be a big draw. I know that a lot of draw for the Kill Bills (besides big-name power from Taratino and Uma Thurman) was the fusion of Westerns and kung fu movies.
Click to expand...

Playing it up Kill Bill style seems like a good idea, actually. That Serenity TV spot that's like a nano-second long sorta suggests that kind of action, but not the genre fusion really. I don't even really like Westerns, but It's kinda too bad Joss toned down the Western backdrop in the movie.

Tarantino's posters, credits, trailers work so well cause there's a very simple, bold graphic language going on: bright primary colors, reds, yellows. It's very stylish, retro 60s/70s. God, I could just imagine giving the Serenity spots the super visual/graphic treatment, with quick shots of some of the mains on Western wanted posters. Then the poster morphs to live-action and you get a quick quip, one-liner as they're highlighted or something. I dunno. But what can you do in 15 secs?

And Joss could start resurrecting obscure 70s icons I guess. Well, OK, there's Ron Glass. Hey, he could get Hal Linden and Abe Vigoda for Serenity pt2!

Just kidding.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0072472/
 
This is the way the guy from Comingsoon.net forecasts the box office this Friday -


# 1
New
Serenity
$15.6

# 2
Flightplan
$13.3


# 3
New
Into the Blue
$12.4


# 4
Tim Burton's Corpse Bride
$12.0


# 5
Just Like Heaven
$6.0


# 6

Roll Bounce
$4.7


# 7
A History of Violence
$4.5


# 8
The Exorcism of Emily Rose
$3.9


# 9 New
The Greatest Game Ever Played
$3.7

# 10
Lord of War
$2.7
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The TV spot isn't quite ubiquitous yet, but I've seen it on several different networks now. 15.6 seems like a modest, attainable number (knock on wood!).
 
Ahh bothersome ads to me. I don't like their placement at all. I just saw one while flipping through channels and it was showing during King of Queens..King of Queens!?!?!?!? I also hoped they'd have put some during Adult Swim but Into the Blue cornered that one. Nightly ads for Into the Blue but not Serenity. And again the trailer is too short and only includes that gun/password moment. Very worrying.


So who all is going this weekend?:read:

Oh and if it only makes 15 million its opening weeken then it will be a failure. So lets hope for something better.
 
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